Winter Storm Season!

While most guys are packing up the equipment until next March I am just polishing off my equipment to get ready for the next season, winter storm season. It appears KC could be in for a wild and snowy winter once again this year!

Anyway we have finally gotten a legit snow at our house this morning with a light snow shower this morning with more on the way. I am surprised to see the temps falling; at 6am the temp was 36F it is now at 33F! We are likely to see on and off showers most of today with a gradual cool down after dark the possibility of the snow to stick if the temps continue to drop throughout the day today. Sunday appears to be the day where we see the most action. A shortwave should kick out Sunday morning dumping as much as 1-2" on the KC metro with locally higher amounts in NE/NC MO. If the snow begins to pick up in intensity later I will likely go out and get some video.

But for now I will just stay in the house and enjoy my break.

Countdown to driver's license: 7 days

Severe WX Possible Thanksgiving Week?

The long range GFS has been consistently showing three storm systems moving into the Plains during the week of Thanksgiving. The first appears to move in on a Tuesday and could bring severe to C Oklahoma and C Texas with 60F dews almost to the KS border and temps reaching the mid 70s on the Red River!! The next one should move in on the Saturday after Thanksgiving and could bring some tornadoes to Arkansas. Then Dec 1 could bring tornadoes to areas as far north as KS as a powerful SSE LLJ moves into the Plains as well as a powerful WSW 500mb trough. Temps appear to be significant in terms of warmth. So it appears at least one of the these setups may verify so I'm not putting up the chase gear yet.

The Best Places to Chase

There has been a lot of talk on ST about the best places to chase. Above is a map I have created with what I think are the best places to chase. The purple is the best of the best, the red is very good, the yellow is decent, and green is chaseable. As you can see there are small regions outside of the High Plains that are in the very good category and based on what I have seen from chasing in these regions or driving through them I have added them as well. Though keep in mind I did not consider road options or anything like that, but if road options had to come into play then easily the best area to chase in the country is SC Kansas between Greensburg and Wichita north to Great Bend and McPherson. IMO eastern Arkansas is another underated area. It rivals areas such as SC Kansas, N Iowa, and NE South Dakota. The main problem with this region is the lack of chaseable storms even though their are several decent setups down their every year and the lack of roads.

Also the far out GFS has been hinting at a powerful storm system moving into the Plains on Thanksgiving and the day after. The day after Thanksgiving looks VERY enticing especially in NE Kansas, cold core anyone?

MOD Risk in SC KS/NC OK!!!

A moderate risk has been issued by the SPC mentioning the possibility of significant tornadic supercells later this afternoon in SC KS/NC OK. We are in Wichita making our way to Blackwell, OK to wait and watch to see where the best area is. This could be major tornado day and I'm very very optimistict about our chances of seeing a tornado! Stay tuned...

Chasing Today! Tornadoes Possible!

Today could be one of our last hoorahs of the 2008 season! A powerful storm system looks to blast into the Central Plains with a decent tornado threat across SE KS/NE OK. However the latest 6z WRF was showing the dryline further west possibly keeping things close and west of I35. Either way the Wichita to Ponca City area appears at most risk so we will be leaving later this morning for this area. Good luck to all chasing today!

Nov 5 Tornado Outbreak?

Here are the dewpoint temps forecasted over the Plains at 00z Wed. Orange is 60F.
Here is the SBCAPE at 00z Wed. As you can see CAPE exceeds 1500 j/kg over much of C KS into Oklahoma.
The monster through forecasted to plow into the Plain states on Wed. This is the 500mb winds.

The WRF has finally come out and it looks VERY nice for a significant severe weather event for the Central Plains. Above is the 500mb winds, CAPE values, and dewpoints from Tornadovideos.net new forecast model website. It is a great tool to use and I am using that more than any other forecast site now!
Anyway a significant trough will emerge from the west into the Plains and bring north deep moisture with dewpoints over 60F over much of KS/OK and MO. Temps will climb into the low-mid 70s and CAPE will likely exceed 1000-1500j/kg. The shear looks amazing like with any late or early season event. As of right now the dryline in SC KS/NC OK looks enticing. If this setup verifies we will more than likely be chasing this event as it could have outbreak potential!!! Stay tuned...