Well I finished my last final of the year so I am available to chase whenever til mid August and Ma Nature may be nice to me. It looks like based off the 12z NAM we could see tornadic supercells in E KS along a warm front under NW flow on Saturday.
We will likely see a warm front as said earlier set up near or just south of I35 from McPherson - Emporia - Paola into MO. Winds will likely be out of the west once you get into MO, but a secondary surface low will back the surface winds to the S/SSW over much of C/S Kansas with NE winds north of the warm front creating nice convergence. We will have SW 850s and NW 500s which will create decent directional shear for a NW flow event. Winds will be somewhat weak but better than the disorganized crap we have been seeing. Dews will reach the upper 60s with pockets of low 70s, which will create unstable conditions especially near the warm front where CAPE will exceed 3000 j/kg, also top off about 300 m2/s2 of 3km helicity and decent 0-3km CAPE, and it creates a decent threat for supercells with a good shot at some tornadoes. I will continue to monitor the setup as we get closer, but it may be the first in a long string of severe weather about to occur over the Plains!
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
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