It has been awhile since I have written a forecast on here but after starting to look at the models again I am liking what I am seeing this Sun and Mon mainly in KS/OK. Now lets not get too excited as it can change like what happened with this last setup but I have a feeling this one will be the one.
Sun, Oct 4: This looks like the better chase day mainly due to the chase terrain its in. At this time the 12z NAM is placing the best CAPE and shear combo over NW OK/far SW KS. CAPE will approach 2000 j/kg as excellent directional shear moves over the region creating large hodographs, this is in addition to the upper 60F dews and lower 80 temps. The surface winds should be out of the ESE along a warm front with a sharp dryline positioned along the TX/OK border. If this plays out then supercells are a sure bet with tornadoes a very good possibility.
Mon, Oct 5: This day looks alright but the SW 850s concern me a bit however moisture will be deep, shear will be more than sufficient and CAPE will exceed 2000 j/kg. As of right now SE KS/E OK look to be under the gun with the highest threat being in SE Kansas where the best CAPE/shear combo is. Helicity will be insane this day with over 300 m2/s2 at 0-1km!! 0-1km EHIs are 4 near the KS/OK border as well. Like the other setup if it verifies this could be day 2 in a prolonged severe weather outbreak across KS/OK.
Stay tuned as the days approach!
Thursday, October 1, 2009
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