No Moisture Today, but Tomorrow?

Well it looks like there just isn't enough moisture to get storms surface based today so we decided to call the chase. However since the moisture is currently enroute to NE/IA we will have plenty of moisture to work with tomorrow and I think we may FINALLY get everything in place to get tornadoes in SW Iowa. A warm front will establish itself along US34 across S IA, along with upper 60 possibly low 70 dews and manageable upper 70 and lower 80F temps to keep storms surface based. CAPE will be a reasonable 3000+ j/kg and that should make up for the relatively weak shear, but the warm front will also help with that. Basically tomorrow any storm that rides the warm front in S IA could become tornadic as long as they stay discrete and the SPC mentioned the likelihood of storms staying discrete for longer along the warm front which would help the tornado potential tremendously. This is shaping up to be a somewhat classic Iowa warm front event! We won't be bailing on this setup so be sure to stay tuned!

Tornadoes Possible in IA Tomorrow

Could it be? The possibility of a tornado in SW Iowa tomorrow? Maybe based off tonight's 0z NAM. It brings in a fairly weak but sufficient system into the NE/IA hopefully allowing for enough forcing to fire off some storms, then it is off to the races with a decent SW LLJ to bring in moisture (mid 60s-upper 60s), allowing for strong instability to develop add 0-3km helicity values of 500+ m2/s2, and 0-1km helicity over 200 m2/s2 to the mix and you have a dangerous combo for monster supercells and a few tornadoes.

Check out this awesome forecast sounding for 0z Sunday for Clarinda, IA!


My dad and I will be chasing this setup so be sure to stay tuned to our live tracker tomorrow.

An Active June Ahead?

Well the GFS continues to show an epic setup showing up on todays 12z model with the ridge over Mexico breaking down this weekend and allowing SW flow from June 4 well into June allowing for continuous days of severe weather with a tornado threat on most days, with a nearly stationary surface low, dryline, warm front, extreme CAPE, deep moisture, and sufficient winds aloft and shear it could get pretty exciting from the Panhandles to E KS to Iowa and Minnesota. We will likely be chasing a lot if this solution verifies which may ACTUALLY happen and redeeming ourselves from our tough early season. So stay tuned and get ready for chaos in the Plains (hopefully) fingers crossed, praying to the weather gods on our hands and knees! ;)

Before all of this though we will be chasing Sunday and Monday, likely in SE NE/S IA based off today's NAM and GFS where there is a good bet for some nasty supercells and likely a few tornadoes.

Tornadoes Close to Home on Sat?

Well I finished my last final of the year so I am available to chase whenever til mid August and Ma Nature may be nice to me. It looks like based off the 12z NAM we could see tornadic supercells in E KS along a warm front under NW flow on Saturday.

We will likely see a warm front as said earlier set up near or just south of I35 from McPherson - Emporia - Paola into MO. Winds will likely be out of the west once you get into MO, but a secondary surface low will back the surface winds to the S/SSW over much of C/S Kansas with NE winds north of the warm front creating nice convergence. We will have SW 850s and NW 500s which will create decent directional shear for a NW flow event. Winds will be somewhat weak but better than the disorganized crap we have been seeing. Dews will reach the upper 60s with pockets of low 70s, which will create unstable conditions especially near the warm front where CAPE will exceed 3000 j/kg, also top off about 300 m2/s2 of 3km helicity and decent 0-3km CAPE, and it creates a decent threat for supercells with a good shot at some tornadoes. I will continue to monitor the setup as we get closer, but it may be the first in a long string of severe weather about to occur over the Plains!

Supercells in SE Kansas Tomorrow?

Well after a MONSTER lull in severe activity over the Plains except for E Colorado we may have a chance at some supercells tomorrow in SE Kansas near a weak surface low and ahead of a cold front. If we can see the destabilization forecast and WSW 500mb winds then I think we are in business for supercells with mainly a large hail threat, but if any sort of OFB can develop and a storm can ride it then there is a small shot at a tornado. I am hoping for a surprise but I will take anything at this point! Stay tuned.

Second Half About to Begin?

After a look at the 0z GFS it is becoming a little more likely that we could see severe wx and troughing in the Plains by as early as next weekend. This is GREAT because I have 3 more more finals, 2 tomorrow, and 1 on Wed and then I'm done til Mid-August so we are likely going to be chasing a lot if the GFS tells us anything with a nearly permanent trough over the Plains. A loose idea of where the action will be is likely in the Dakotas and maybe NE/KS at times but it appears the beautiful plains of North and South Dakota may be the hot spot as the second half of the season opens up! Stay tuned as it could get exciting and busy here.

Fishing Pics from Yesterday!

Last bass of the day, my little sister took this pic.

This little guy was barely half the size of the crankbait! Check out that gash probably left by a bigger bass trying to eat him.

First bass of the day!

Another pic of me with the first bass of the day.

Decided to get some of the pics I took yesterday of a few of the fish I caught, mainly the small ones, it is hard to take a picture fishin by yourself, but you always catch more fish by yourself right?

Also we all are sitting quietly with our fingers crossed as the pattern is beginning to become more ominous for severe weather by the June 5-8 period onward with a May 22-26, 2008 type of trough moving into KS/NE/IA. Please pray that it will verify, but I am becoming pretty confident, quietly though that it may just happen!!!

Great Day of Fishing!

Since we are in he worst death ridge probably in history, at least in 2006 there were storms I decided to go fishing at my neighbors pond. It is about 50 ft by 30 ft so it is pretty small but it is a great place to go fishing. I spent about 3 hours out there and caught 38 bass and about 5-6 others that fell off the hook before I could get them in, including two of the biggest bass I have ever had on the line (close to 8lbs likely no exaggeration!!!) I know it sounds like a classic fish story but they were massive and both fell off when they jumped, one I was reaching to grab it and it jumped breaking off the hook and splashing me real good. Now though I am obsessed with finding these fish again and pulling them out of the water to see how big they really are. Who needs a massive lake, when you got a classic farm pond. If anybody is wondering what I was using it was a Rapala shallow running crankbait, I love crankbaits and it is pretty easy to see why. Last year I caught my biggest bass ever in the pond that I am estimated weighed 4-5 lbs. I was lucky to have had my video camera running and caught me getting that fish, I may post a still if I decide to ever put it up on the computer, but tomorrow I may post a couple pics of the bass I caught, there nothing insane most fish were pretty small but fun to catch nonetheless. Now time to relax watch the tube and get back at it tomorrow to try and get these monsters to shore!

Possible Pattern Shift and Canada Chasing

Well the GFS is finally showing a glimmer of hope with the potential for some good NW flow events and possibly weak SW flow events starting next week into the weekend. It is way far out but it is nice to see and to make things even better by the first weekend of June the GFS is indicating the monster trough we have been waiting for plow into the Plains!

Also I am currently working on getting my passport for a trip to Canada in July my dad and I are planning on taking to chase some of the incredible supercells and tornadoes of the N Plains we will also be chasing the Dakotas, Montana, and Minnesota. I have an action packed summer ahead with chasing the Plains, a fishing trip to Hells Canyon for monster sturgeon, a kayak and fishing trip to the Jack River in the Ozarks, the Canada trip in July, and finally a trip to Sandbridge Beach, VA for a family reunion in August! Stay tuned to the blog as I will be updating with my usual chase blogs as well as photos and videos from our trips. Stay tuned...

5/15/09 E Kansas Chase

I had a great chase in E Kansas yesterday in and around Ottawa. I left home at around 4pm heading for a few cells developing south of a grungy MCS along the warm front near I70. I blasted west on US56 and could see the base of a developing tail-end charlie cell near Lyndon, KS. I shot south on US59 and found a county road to go west again towards Centropolis. I found a great dirt road to pull off and watch the developing supercell to my SW. I quickly had to reposition S and E as the storm began to make a right turn. YES! The storm quickly began to obtain some nice structure and I repositioned to a paved road N of Ottawa. I found another good road to pull off on as I watched the cell produce a nice funnel that I was a bit reluctant to say was a funnel until the SN report came out. Chaser Scott Bell then showed up and we talked for a bit. Good meeting you! Just as the storm was about to go bonkers it began going back to the NE and became engulfed in the squall line. I decided to take some pics of the squall as it entered Ottawa and it was the prettiest shelf I've seen in a while. I then began to regroup and look at a new bow echo off to my west. The NWS warning text mentioned winds in excess of 80MPH so I wanted to be in that. I positioned myself on KS68 east of Pamona and got cored by the bow. I got winds maybe around 60MPH, it rocked the car a bit and wobbled the powerlines around me and I was able to get some nice stock video. I was also hoping for some large hail but all I could get was hail to maybe dime. After that I went back to Ottawa for some KFC and then I made my way back home being treated to a decent lightning show! A great local chase day for sure!

May 13 2009 N MO Tornadic Supercells & Another Miss

A funnel cloud develops from a gorgeous supercell that looked like a small blob on radar with barely 45dbz on it.

A probable large tornado on the ground in NE MO somewhere, this still was taken at 7:20pm, at this time another report was sent in via SN.

Incredible CG strike next to a textbook clear slot/RFD and rapidly rotating wall cloud that somehow didn't produce.


Don't want to get into too much detail, but to make it short saw some stuff, missed the incredible stuff up north because of a hard choice that I happened to choose wrong. To sum it up I am really overthinking when I'm out chasing and its costing me big time. When a tornado warning goes out for a storm you go for it, don't wait to think another storm will.

Tornadoes Likely in MO Today!

It appears that there is a bet for tornadic supercells over C/E MO today. A prefrontal trough will be the focal point for convergence from Columbia to Rolla, MO. The RUC breaks out a lone supercell over Columbia that appears stationary thoughout the day where the cold front hangs back in NW MO/W IA all day. I am also encouraged to see clear skies along and south of I70 as an MCS tracks over N MO, this will likely leave an OFB which will greater enhance tornado potential. Also a MCV from last nights storms will enhance the tornado potential EVEN further so today could be very intense if a storm can tap into one or more of these "enhancers". We will be leaving at 10am for Columbia and we will be streaming at Tornadovideos.net so be sure to stay tuned.

Severe Wx/Tornado Outbreak on Wed

Well it appears Tuesday will be a complete waste of some great conditions over great chase terrain as a cap from hell will keep anything from firing, but Wed could be a BIG day in E MO/C IL. Though I am not familiar with this region it seems as though there will be decent veering with height which is unusual for that part of the country which may lead to a potential outbreak of supercells over E MO/C IL though the SPC thinks it will be a squall line. I have seen some much worse in terms of veering wind profiles in Illinois that have produced large outbreaks in the past and this one looks pretty good. If we can get some good destabilization and an OFB then there will be a good threat for a tornado outbreak across MO/IL. Stay tuned...

Tornado Outbreak in KS/OK Tues?

It starting to look as though Tuesday, May 12 could be a pretty good day down in S KS/N OK! The NAM is finally on board with the GFS showing 60f+ dews into W Kansas and a classic dryline bulge in SW Kansas that will likely provide enough convergence and forcing for the cap to break and with the decent CAPE values, insane helicity, and great directional shear any storm that fires from I40 to I70 could produce tornadoes maybe even a few strong tornadoes closer to dark as the LLJ ramps up. At this point I would want to be on the warm front dryline intersection which looks to setup somewhere near Dodge City possibly which is also at the NE edge of the dryline bulge. Now things will likely change, but we will likely be chasing this setup if it verifies. Stay tuned...

Chaos or Dud?

There has been alot of chatter about the dismal pattern we are seeing on the goofus model and I'm not sure what to think, but I am optimistic. Someone posted a classic example of what was happening this time last year, with the same death ridge, strong cap blabber. In fact the first and second week of May were EXACTLY the same in terms of the pattern we are seeing, the zonal flow with a small death ridge till about May 22 when the season went into Mass CHAOS. Ed Berry who I think may be one of the smartest people ever in terms of forecasting the weather, is calling for our typical pattern of troughs mainly in the C/N Plains which is great to hear. He also said that he expects a possibly active summer with troughs plowing into the Central US through August!! While everyone complains now, when September comes around and we all have our best seasons ever it will be funny to see the new thread on ST titled. "Man what an awesome year!"

Basically what I'm saying is everyone just relax, it WILL happen. Most of the greatest chase seasons we have had in recent years (2004,2005,2008) have started late.

5/7/09 NW Missouri Supercell

My dad and I intercepted a nice supercell in NW Missouri yesterday that produced decent structure and some interesting wall clouds!

Tornadoes Possible in E KS/W MO Today

My dad and I will be chasing a decent setup today over E KS/W MO! The 4km wrf precip model is showing a lone supercell exploding down near Paola and tracking slowly SE with a nice hook shape towards Springfield and eventually into Arkansas well after midnight. If this can verify we will be watching tornadoes later today for sure.

Also the SPC has upgraded tomorrow to a MOD risk of SC Oklahoma. We'll see if that verifies.

Severe Wx Outbreaks Wed-Fri!

Well we are looking at what could be an incredibly active couple of days for my dad and I. Starting with today, Wed. It looks like if we can get some good destabilization then there is a chance for some supercells in NE KS/NW MO. The 4km WRF was breaking out a nice isolated cell by 6pm and tracking SE towards the KC metro or just west. If we can get a SEward moving storm we may be able to squeeze out a tornado! This is a slight possibility though.
Tomorrow looks pretty good right in our backyard! There is a decent threat for tornadic supercells from I70 to I40 but it appears the cap will only be able to break in Kansas where the 4km WRF again is breaking out one lone isolated monster cell in EC Kansas and having it track slowly eastward into Missouri. Sig Tor is approaching 8-9 in E Kansas so if a storm can fire tornadoes and extremely large hail looks likely! I'm looking forward to tomorrow for sure!! The SPC also agrees mentioning tornadoes and very large hail the main threats with isolated supercells.
Friday also looks pretty good, but I haven't looked in too much detail. I'm just taking these setups one at a time. So stay tuned...

NW Texas Tornado Event...again

The 12z NAM is painting a pretty ominous picture over the Red River Valley this Friday for yet another severe weather event however this time we won't have a crashing cold front and much stronger low level shear. Great veering with height will create some large hodographs especially near the Wichita Falls area. We will likely chase this event if it verifies so stay tuned...

May 1 NW Texas Tornadic Supercell

My dad and I had a great chase yesterday in NW Texas that resulted in great structure, large hail to golfball, many "too close for comfort" lightning strikes, and even a small tornado near Knox City, TX. We left Clinton at 11am on Friday and had a target of Seymour. We stopped in Vernon for some Pizza Hut and got into Seymour around 3pm or just as storms fired to our west. We got gas and blasted west and got in position just in time to see a small tornado from about 10-15 miles away, I was able to get about the last minute of the tornado on video so I will get that up tomorrow. The storm continued to show great structure and rotate more and more. It tried to produce several times, but could never put one down. Well I guess that's what happens during these "marginal" setups, but it still was enjoyable. Then north of Stamford, TX we got some major hail to golfball size with maybe a few larger stones as we watched an incredible wall cloud. We also watched a funnel in the occluded meso that lasted quite awhile. The storm weakened east of Stamford, and we tried to intercept the cell near Seymour, but it shriveled before we got to Throckmorton so we decided to call the chase and head to Graham for dinner. We then continued to Fort Worth where we are staying with some family.

We may chase again today in N Texas, but we are going to wait to see how it plays out.

Tornadoes in NW Texas Today!

The SPC has put out a 10% tornado risk today for a small area of NW Texas. Today looks like a GREAT chase day with slow storm motions, extreme CAPE, and very deep moisture. We expect some VERY nicely structured supercells with very large hail and tornadoes, MAYBE just MAYBE a strong tornado if a cell can latch onto the outflow boundary. Unlike yesterday the cap should be gone and we should have a nice sharp dryline to get things going near the TP! We will be leaving the Super 8 here in Clinton around 11am or so with a target of Seymour as an initial target. I will likely have streaming up again today so be sure to check out Tornadovideos.net!