Intense Lightning Tonight!

I was doing some fishing at the neighbors farm pond when I noticed CGs to my west. I decided to call it a day as it was getting dark anyway and I had caught 5-6 bass so I was content. The storms didn't look great so I just decided to relax but after the sun set I noticed very frequent lightning to my west. I decided to grab my camera and head to my favorite lightning photo spot a couple miles down the road. O boy what a show it was. My best lightning to date! Check it out below!








It is actually kind of weird because I have decided to cool off of the get the best video and pics attitude and changed to a more have fun while chasing attitude and it seems everytime since then I have nailed everything I've chase! I think I'll stick with this new attitude.

Finally, Good Lightning!

After a frustrating lightning photo season I finally got a decent anvil crawler day and was able to get quite a few shots. Check them out below.

Monster Hail and Possible Tornadoes in NE KS/NW MO?

The RUC is showing an explosive setup over NE KS/NW MO today with extreme CAPE over 6000j/kg+ and 0-1km SRH over 300 m2/s2 locally. 850s are a bit veered but WNW flow may offset that a bit and a warm front along with a secondary surface low will back the winds allowing for favorable conditions near the surface. 0-3km CAPE is also quite high with over 300j/kg over a large region. The main concern is the cap but both the 4km WRF and RUC breaks out cells west of KC. As of right now we are targeting NW of KC to start say Leavenworth or possibly a bit west of there. Monster hail looks like a good bet with steep lapse rates punching into the region and the extreme CAPE, tornadoes also seem possible. Good luck to all chasing today!

Possible Chase in SE NE/SW IA/NW MO Tuesday?

Well Tuesday looks like a great chase day in SE NE/NW MO/SW IA if the 12z NAM verifies with high CAPE/SRH and some good veering with height. A strong trough for this time of the year will move into the region allowing for strong deep layer shear as well. Not really much else to say except I think supercells and tornadoes are a good possibility over this area on Tuesday. Will we chase...who knows my dad has been acting weird about chasing anything not within a county lately.

An Active Fall Ahead?

Now that we are officially in an El Nino I decided to do some research to see if a developing El Nino tends to lead to an active fall and what I found was that was true. Recent years with El Nino present in the fall include 2002, 2004, 2006. 2002 had several August events that led to some tornadic activity but nothing spectacular however I will say it was an active fall. 2004 had some nice fall events such as August 26 in SW Iowa and October 29 in MN/IA/MO. 2006 was incredibly active with 4-5 tornado events including August 24, September 16, 21, 22, and October 26. Also taking a look at Ed Berry's latest blog post which he will be retiring mentioned west coast trough activity come August. Something tells me if we can get just a few tornado events in the fall we will likely be able to turn our season around. Time will tell.

Yet Another Local Chase?

The models are now on board showing what could be an explosive day across E Kansas on Friday! Though it appears the cap may keep things isolated but initiation appears likely. With that said nice westerly 500s, S/SSW 850s at about 30-40knts, very high dews and CAPE values along with great SRH will create favorable conditions for supercells and possibly tornadoes. 0-1km EHIs will be quite high as well. If this verifies we WILL be chasing this setup for sure so stay tuned!

The Season That Never Ends...

Everytime we think the 2009 season will end it throws a curve now showing several systems coming over the next few weeks including a fairly deep west coast trough similar to an early June type of setup but that is for another post. I am really looking at this Friday at the moment! It appears we could see a potentially active severe weather event shaping up over C Kansas. Based on today's 12z NAM a weak but sufficient shortwave coupled with 20-30knt SE 850s and 3000+ j/kg of CAPE along a very sharp stationary/warm front boundary will create very favorable conditions for supercells and possible tornadoes not mention 0-3km SRH 350+ m2/s2 and 250+ m2/s2 at 0-1km. Dews should reach the low possibly mid 70s and temps will be in the upper 80/90s north of the boundary while it will be simmering close to 100 south of the boundary. This should be enough to punch through the cap, nice area of convergence also looks to setup along the US50 corridor from Hutchinson to Emporia allowing for initiation as well. With that said my main concern is the CAP however the NAM breaks out precip from Hutch into E KS and W MO. We will have family in town so it may be hard to get away but we will try if it appears the cap will be breakable.