Friday, April 1, 2011

First Chase Ops of 2011?

It appears looking at the GFS, ECMWF, and the NAM we are entering a very active pattern here in the early-mid April timeframe with our first chase of the 2011 season a very good possibility.

I will start with this weekend. Not much to say expect an extreme CAP with great shear and instability will create a non event expect for maybe some storms on the CF near/after dark in NE KS/N MO into C IA. The problem is just bad timing with the trough keeping the best forcing too far to the west. Monday looks decent in MS/AL/TN region with tornadoes a good bet but not very chaseable for obvious reasons.

I am really eyeing the April 8-9 timeframe with a monster well timed trough plowing into the Plains with 2 potentially good chase days. April 8 is looking like a classic early spring dryline chase in SC KS/W OK with dews in the mid-upper 60Fs, a nice easy to break cap (pray for this actually verify), S/SSE 850s, and 2500+ j/kg of CAPE. It is only a week out so hopefully it will verify but the models have been absolutely horrible anywhere further than 48hrs out this season. April 9 is looking primed in IA/MO/E KS possibly even into C/E OK. Right now the hotspot on April 9 looks to be C/E IA closer to the warm front and better shear.

Then in the WAAAAYYY long range April 14-16 looks very active with potentially widespread events on all 3 days first in the S/C Plains on April 14-15 with a the threat moving into the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley.

It makes me cringe to think how far away these events are and how bad the models have been so far this season but with the fact it is April and moisture is more likely to be in numerous supply I am more confident that we are almost for sure going to see a nice chaseable setup in the Plains sometime in the next few weeks.

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